Vietnam Coffee Exports Exceed $6 Billion, Value Declines Despite Volume Gain
Vietnam's coffee exports reached over US$6 billion in the first eight months of 2026. This represented a 10% volume increase year-on-year, yet an 11.2% value decline due to lower prices.
Export Volume Up, Value Down
Vietnam exported nearly 1.7 million tonnes of coffee, valued over US$6 billion, during the first eight months of 2026. This volume marked a 10% increase compared to the same period last year. However, the export value fell by 11.2%, primarily due to a drop in global coffee prices. The Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association reported these figures.
The European Union and the United States remain key markets for Vietnamese coffee. Asian markets, particularly China, are emerging as new demand drivers.
Climate and Inventory Support Prices
The Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association's chairman, Nguyen Nam Hai, expects opportunities for both volume and price growth in the year's final months. Coffee prices could find support from several factors. Climate change has delayed harvests in Brazil. Additionally, the El Niño weather phenomenon, heatwaves, and drought may affect Asian production in late 2026 and 2027. Low global inventory levels also contribute to potential price stability.
EUDR Compliance Creates Opportunity
New regulations also reshape the market. The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) takes effect on 30 December for most businesses. This presents a strategic advantage for Vietnamese coffee, especially as other producing countries show lower compliance levels, according to the Association.
Buyers are already prioritising EUDR-compliant Vietnamese coffee for contracts from October. Such compliant shipments could increase export volume by 8–10% and command a premium of around $50 per tonne over conventional coffee.
Global demand for deeply processed coffee products is also rising, which could help Vietnam reach its $9 billion export target for the year, Hai noted. However, a potential market surplus could depress prices. The US Department of Agriculture forecasts increased global coffee production in the 2026–2027 crop year.
Estimated global supply stands at 189 million bags against consumption of 179 million bags in major markets like the US and Europe. This 10 million-bag surplus could drive prices down, creating a mixed outlook for Vietnamese coffee exporters.
This article is journalism, not investment advice; consult a licensed professional before making financial decisions. Market data is indicative, may be delayed, and should be verified with your broker or exchange before use.
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