Goldman Sachs sees higher Thai H1 2026 growth, no BOT rate hike
The investment bank projects Thailand's first-half 2026 GDP growth could rise to 2.9% from 2.4%, driven by expanded manufacturing data coverage, but cautions against immediate monetary tightening.
Thailand's H1 2026 Growth Seen Higher
Goldman Sachs estimates Thailand's economic growth for the first half of 2026 could be revised upward to 2.9% from 2.4%. This potential revision follows an expansion of the Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) by the Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) on 30 September 2026.
Despite these stronger figures, Goldman Sachs believes the Bank of Thailand (BOT) is unlikely to tighten monetary policy based on this revision alone, as stated in its 5 October 2026 analysis.
Expanded Manufacturing Data Fuels Revisions
The OIE's MPI expansion now includes previously uncounted output from new electronics factories, covering laptops, optical transceivers, and uninterruptible power supplies. Goldman Sachs calculates this could also lead to upward revisions for Thailand's 2025 GDP growth, from 2.4% to 2.9%, and for 2024, from 3.0% to 3.1%.
These estimates assume the newly counted output was not already included in published GDP figures and that a 1% MPI adjustment raises real manufacturing GDP by 0.5%.
Concentrated Growth, SME Strain Persist
Goldman Sachs cautioned that manufacturing growth remains concentrated in the electronics sector. Optical transceivers contributed 3.3 percentage points to the 4.0% year-on-year MPI increase during January–August 2026, with other electronics adding 0.7 percentage points.
Industries outside electronics showed a 0.1 percentage point subtraction, indicating broad stagnation elsewhere. The bank also noted that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) face financial pressure, with lending contracting for 16 consecutive quarters and average borrowing costs at 6.9% compared to 3% for large companies.
BOT Focuses on Broad Inflation, SME Health
The investment bank believes the BOT will not tighten monetary policy based solely on revised GDP figures and potential fuel-driven inflation. Thailand's Oil Fuel Fund deficit, exceeding 100 billion baht, could lead to higher energy costs for businesses and consumers, potentially pushing up inflation.
However, Goldman Sachs expects the BOT to focus on whether inflation spreads beyond energy and becomes persistent, particularly while smaller businesses remain under financial strain.
This article is journalism, not investment advice; consult a licensed professional before making financial decisions. Market data is indicative, may be delayed, and should be verified with your broker or exchange before use.
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