AMRO lifts ASEAN+3 growth to 4.9%, defies geoeconomic competition
The regional macroeconomic office upgraded its 2026 outlook from 4.8%, keeping 2027 stable at 4.7%, even as experts note rising pressure on the region's open economic model.
AMRO Raises Growth Outlook
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) upgraded its growth forecast for the ASEAN+3 region to 4.9% for 2026. This marks an increase from its previous projection of 4.8%. AMRO also maintained its 2027 growth outlook at 4.7%. This update comes from AMRO's Quarterly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook.
The positive revision occurs despite growing concerns about the region's traditional open economic strategy facing external pressures.
Geoeconomic Pressures Intensify
For the past two decades, ASEAN has benefited from an open global economy, attracting investment and integrating into supply chains. However, this model now faces intensifying pressure from global geoeconomic competition.
The US-China strategic rivalry, including tariff disagreements, export restrictions, and competition for semiconductors and critical minerals, is reshaping the global economic environment. Professor Mari Elka Pangestu, who co-chaired the 2025 ASEAN Geoeconomics Task Force, noted these shifts.
ASEAN's "Managed Resilience" Strategy
Professor Pangestu suggests ASEAN needs a more deliberate, strategic approach rather than abandoning its foundational openness. She frames this as “openness with shock absorbers” or “managed resilience.” This involves proactively identifying vulnerabilities, especially where supply chain concentration creates risks.
The goal is to build collective buffers and strengthen economic foundations, rather than adopting protectionist measures. Past examples include the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific.
The shift towards managed resilience means businesses in ASEAN should prepare for continued disruptions from unilateral tariffs, export controls, and investment screening. Companies operating within the region will need to assess supply chain vulnerabilities and diversify where possible.
ASEAN's effort to act as a convener for coordinated positions on digital trade rules and investment frameworks could shape future operating environments. This approach aims to ensure inclusive development, building capacity in less developed member states to participate in supply chain diversification.
This article is journalism, not investment advice; consult a licensed professional before making financial decisions. Market data is indicative, may be delayed, and should be verified with your broker or exchange before use.
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