Thailand GDP forecasts lifted by AI exports, still trails region

Upward Revisions for Thailand's GDP

Economists are increasing their growth projections for Thailand, following updated manufacturing data that shows a greater contribution from industries linked to artificial intelligence (AI).

Estimates compiled by Bloomberg from various banks and research firms suggest these revisions could boost Thailand’s projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2026 by 0.2–0.3 percentage points. Kiatnakin Phatra Securities has lifted its forecast to 2.8% from 2.5%, while Krungthai Compass, the research arm of Krung Thai Bank Pcl, now predicts 2.6%, up from 2.3%. Standard Chartered has also raised its estimate to 2.3% from 2.1%.

Regional Growth Disparity Persists

Despite the upward adjustments, Thailand is still expected to record the slowest growth among Southeast Asia’s major economies. The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October 2026 World Economic Outlook, presented in Bangkok, forecasts Vietnam’s economy to expand by 8.4%, more than three times Thailand’s pace.

Malaysia is projected to grow by 5.2%, Indonesia by 5.1%, Singapore by 5%, and the Philippines by 3.4%. While surging electronics exports and AI-related investment bolster headline growth, high household debt and weak consumer demand continue to restrain domestic activity.

Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, an emerging Asia economist at Kiatnakin Phatra Securities, noted that the revisions improve measured growth but not its breadth.

Manufacturing Index Overhaul

The reassessment of Thailand’s economic performance follows an overhaul of its manufacturing production index. This update now includes newer factories and rapidly expanding product categories tied to AI and data centres, such as laptops, optical transceivers, and backup power equipment.

Exports of these three product groups collectively reached 802 billion baht (US$24 billion) last year, representing over 7% of Thailand’s total shipments.

Erica Tay, an economist at Maybank Securities, estimates these changes could lift reported growth by 0.2 percentage points in 2024, 0.5 points in 2025, and 0.6 points in the first half of 2026, narrowing Thailand’s growth gap with regional peers benefiting from the global AI supply chain.

Policymakers Await Further Data

The potential GDP upgrade offers limited reason for policymakers to raise interest rates, according to Standard Chartered economist Tim Leelahaphan. Most research firms are holding off on further growth forecast revisions until 16 November, when Thailand’s economic planning agency is scheduled to release third-quarter GDP figures and updated projections.

The Finance Ministry will provide an earlier indication today, 9 November, when it updates its own economic forecasts. Businesses and investors will closely monitor these upcoming official releases for a clearer picture of Thailand’s economic trajectory and any potential policy shifts.