Nomura Flags US Asset Risk, Challenges 'TINA' Doctrine Amid AI Rally
Nomura analysts caution that US financial assets carry increasing risk, concealed by the artificial intelligence equity boom. A tech market reversal could prompt a sharp correction in US assets and weaken the dollar.
AI Rally Masks US Risk
Nomura analysts warn of growing risks in the US economy and capital markets. The artificial intelligence (AI) equity boom currently masks a rising US risk premium, according to a Nomura report. Should the technology rally reverse, it could trigger a sharp correction in US assets. Such a reversal also carries the potential to weaken the US dollar.
Nomura analysts, led by Rob Subbaraman, highlight the concentration of global savings in US dollar assets. This leaves investors increasingly exposed to a downturn in the AI-driven US equity market.
Challenging 'TINA'
Nomura aims to “debunk the assumed robustness of ‘TINA’”, referring to the belief that “there is no alternative” to US assets. The Japanese investment bank points to increasing US liabilities. The ratio of US net international investment position (NIIP) liabilities to the combined assets of all net creditor nations reached 80 per cent.
In 2025, US NIIP liabilities stood at US$21.9 trillion, equivalent to 71 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).
Quadrupled Portfolio Liabilities
US portfolio liabilities have significantly expanded. They quadrupled to US$37.4 trillion in March 2026. This compares to US$9.2 trillion before the global financial crisis. This growing exposure means a sharp decline in US equities would have broader implications for global capital flows.
The impact would be particularly pronounced if foreign investors began reducing their holdings of US assets, Nomura stated.
For Asian investors, this analysis suggests a need to diversify away from heavy US dollar asset concentration. A US equity correction and dollar weakening could affect regional portfolio valuations and trade dynamics. Asian economies with significant US dollar reserves or trade exposure would feel direct impacts.
The next indicator to watch is any shift in global capital flows out of US assets, which could signal broader market rebalancing.
This article is journalism, not investment advice; consult a licensed professional before making financial decisions. Market data is indicative, may be delayed, and should be verified with your broker or exchange before use.
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